Market Outlook: Soundtrack to Market Trends

Known more for his data analysis, Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Realtor.com, shared his true passion with the hundreds of members attending our 2015 Market Outlook when he started spinning (as in music, not numbers). “My real passion is not economics; it’s music,” Smoke said, before blasting last year’s top tunes as “DJ Smokey Smoke” and applying them to the five themes that will define the market this year. Music helps the memory, he noted. 1. The housing crisis is behind us and a high volume of distressed sales is one less problem that we have to face. (“Problem” Ariana Grande) 2. The economic context is much better and consumers are far happier. (“Happy” Pharrell Williams) 3. Starting first with actions by FHFA Director Mel Watt, enablers are falling into place for the return of first-time buyers. (“Turn Down for What” DJ Snake and Lil Jon) 4. Life drives housing, and older millennials and older baby boomers will start to act to capitalize on their circumstances. (“Counting Stars” OneRepublic) 5. If you can qualify for a mortgage, it’s a great time to buy. (“Shake it Off” Taylor Swift)

Smoke’s presentation is available here.

In addition to Smoke, our panelists provided great takeaways for our members. Mike Fauth Area Lending Manager/ Vice President Citibank, N.A Lending is modestly tight, and student loan debt is playing a huge factor in keeping millennials out of the market. Douglas Johnson Managing Director CBRE Auction Services I think it’s going to be a great year for commercial. We expect compression and property price increases in 2015. Foreign investors will continue to invest in U.S. real estate, making for a more competitive market. David Wolf President Related Realty New condo development will increase in pace and project size yet we are still about three years out from any large scale developments delivering new product in Chicago. Demand for new construction is high while construction costs are up, so something needs to give.